A practical guide to the future
“About the future! But honestly, we know absolutely nothing about it,” says George Tesman in Henrik Ibsen's Hedda Gabler.
These days, the play is once again being performed at the National Theatre—just as it has been, off and on, for over a hundred years. With its profound exploration of human uncertainty and the unknowable future, the play is regarded as a masterpiece of realism and modernism, delving into psychological complexity and the tension between personal agency and societal constraints.
Was George Tesman right about the future? Well, yes, no, and maybe. He has a point, but he’s not entirely correct, because there’s quite a bit we can say about the future. In this text, I’ll share how you can get better at doing just that.
Prologue:
You can Choose Whether to Enter the Unknown Prepared or Unprepared
I know many people who refuse to engage with the future. They are too preoccupied with enduring the present and longing for the past. For them, the past is a time when they were younger, seen through the lens of nostalgia. Some feel that they peaked in those days and that everything—music, candy, and society itself—was better back then.
Maybe things were better for them personally, but not necessarily for everyone. Maybe their memory filters out what wasn’t great. Either way, the past won’t return. The future will arrive, whether or not we choose to think about it. So perhaps it’s wise to give it some attention?
I’ve always been curious about the future. Maybe it started with the flying cars in Donald Duck comics or the Back to the Future movies in the 80s. The first time I heard about futures studies, though, was much later, around 2006–2007, in the startup scene in Trondheim.
There was a company in our co-working space that specialized in simulations. One of their clients was the Beijing Olympics. They explained that, although you can’t predict the future, you can visualize and rehearse different scenarios. That made sense to me.
The next ten years, that is, after the financial crisis, the world experienced fairly stable growth, and few, including myself, thought this was going to change significantly. Of course, there were immense challenges like global warming, but life felt predictable—at least in my mind.
Then COVID hit. The world became entirely unpredictable. Control slipped away. I thought, "Now we truly know nothing." But even then, I tried to find logic in the madness. I started to think about a woman named Monika Bielskyte.
In November 2019, just before the pandemic, I had met an intriguing individual at a conference. She talked about “prototyping the future.” She was a futurist, consulting for companies like Google, Nike, and Disney. I had met many tourists in my life, but Monika was the first futurist.
"About the future! But honestly, we know quite a lot about it," I thought after meeting her.
She made me want to be a fu-tourist—a tourist of the future. Then the pandemic hit, it became the push I needed to dive deeper into the field. I started exploring Monika's website and delving into resources online and in books. I gained a sort of foundation. An understanding. But those were survival times. There was no funding, no travel, and many other priorities to handle.
Then, two years ago, I decided to pick up the thread. I wanted to learn this properly. I didn’t want to be caught off guard again. Futures studies help us navigate uncharted waters. They prepare us for the unexpected.
As an entrepreneur, one of the most vital traits you can have is resilience—the ability to adapt and endure tough times. Tough times will come, sooner or later. But futures thinking isn’t just about survival.
It’s about ambition. Taking risks. Exploring untrodden paths. Entrepreneurs aim to minimize risks to acceptable levels, even as they venture into the unknown. Futures thinking helps us make better decisions in the businesses we start and the companies we invest in.
That’s why I decided to dig deeper. My search led me to the Institute for the Future, based in Palo Alto. They’ve been pioneers in futures studies since the 1960s, collaborating closely with Stanford University. These are the experts that tech giants lean on.
Their track record is impressive: in 2008, they created a pandemic scenario eerily similar to what we experienced in 2020. It was clear that these people knew a thing or two about scenarios.
Over the past two years, I’ve completed some courses with the Institute, specializing in futures thinking. I suppose I could give myself the popular title “futurist” now. So could you. “Futurist” isn’t a protected title. But I like the term tourist of the future even more. It doesn’t mean more than that—I’ve simply acquired some useful tools and skills that I can take with me on the journey ahead.
Some of these I’ll share with you.
This article aims to present mindsets and tools that can help you navigate the future. Of course I can’t cover everything here, so I’ll focus on identifying signals and drivers of change and developing scenarios based on these.
What Is Futures Thinking?
Futures thinking might sound a bit like science fiction, but it’s both serious, important, and practical. It’s not about predicting the future with precision; it’s about making informed choices in a world and time where everything—from technology to the climate—is in flux. Futures thinking prepares us for multiple possibilities by opening our eyes to new opportunities, helping us make better decisions by understanding the connections between the past, present, and future.
In futures thinking, being creative is more important than being correct. You can’t know everything exactly, and do you really want to? Personally, I wouldn’t want to know everything about the future. If I knew the exact day I would die, my life would become a countdown to that moment. Futures thinking allows us to explore possibilities, prepare for changes, and actively shape the future we want. By thinking like a futurist, we can all contribute to defining the future instead of being passive recipients of others’ visions.
I think we can all agree that today’s society is dominated by short-term thinking. This is a challenge for individuals and society alike. Placing decisions within a larger context by understanding past events and potential future developments can make us more resilient.
The Future Is Coming Soon to a Place Near You
It’s common to think of the future as distant. In the field of future studies, the future starts ten years from today. While the tools can certainly be used to think about both shorter and longer time horizons, there are good reasons to choose ten years as the frame. Ten years provide enough time for significant changes to occur, whether it involves building companies, introducing new technologies, or leading social movements.
A ten-year horizon gives us mental flexibility and the ability to imagine new ideas and possibilities. By focusing on a ten-year framework, we can shape the future while also reaping immediate benefits like increased creativity and optimism.
When looking ten years ahead, we must recognize both the potential continuities in today’s trends and the possible disruptions that could lead to significant changes. For tourism, this means preparing for a range of opportunities—from technological breakthroughs that could transform travel experiences to changes in global economic and political conditions that might impact international tourism.
With a ten-year perspective, we have the freedom to move beyond today’s constraints, allowing us to think more creatively and consider surprising possibilities. This period also provides enough time to plan, gather resources, recruit allies, and take action to shape the future we desire. Preparing for a future ten years away minimizes the chances of being “too late” or missing opportunities. Surprisingly, few people take full advantage of this window. Perhaps they doubt it?
Do You?
Ten years is a long time in the world of technology. It took just ten years for the world to go from a handful of mobile phones with internet access to five billion internet-connected phones. It took ten years from the vision of Bitcoin being described in a document to achieving a market value of over $300 billion. It took less than ten years from Netflix and Spotify launching streaming services in 2008 for streaming to become universally adopted.
Ten years is also a magical window for social change. It took ten years from the first country legalizing same-sex marriage to it becoming legal in 31 countries, supported by most of the world. Things that seem impossible or unlikely can genuinely change within a decade.
In your personal life and mine, ten years is enough time to achieve almost anything. In ten years, you can go from being uneducated to earning a doctorate. You can raise a child from toddlerhood to their teenage years. You can become one of the world’s leading experts in a field that doesn’t even exist today.
For an entrepreneur, ten years is an eternity. It took less than ten years for a couple of broke design students renting out air mattresses to help cover their rent to turn Airbnb into one of the world’s largest travel companies.
The Air bed and breakfast site in 2008
"I can’t go back to yesterday, because I was a different person then."
– Alice (from Alice in Wonderland)
Although futures thinking is relatively simple to learn—and anyone can master it—it requires certain skills. To improve, it’s helpful to practice, but what kinds of skills should you focus on? Here are a few:
Forecasting skills enable us to identify and prepare for future opportunities and challenges by interpreting signs of upcoming changes. This requires a blend of analytical and creative thinking to recognize signals, identify drivers, and communicate forecasts to others.
Simulation skills help break down mental barriers to thinking more effectively about the future. They allow us to predict emotions, actions, and outcomes in future scenarios. In a way, they help us visualize the “course” ahead—like a skier preparing for a downhill race in Kvitfjell.
Collaboration skills (called gaming skills in English) let us explore future possibilities and perspectives alongside others, fostering empathy and understanding while reducing the risk of unexpected surprises. Diverse backgrounds contribute to a more holistic and inclusive approach with a broader range of viewpoints.
Action skills help us use insights to create positive change. These include identifying key measures to address future challenges, formulating and communicating clear future visions, overcoming obstacles, gathering supporters, and creating concrete plans to achieve these goals.
This article focuses primarily on forecasting skills, as the goal is to guide you step by step in building credible scenarios based on the signals and drivers you identify in the world today.
The weather forecast on norwegian TV used to look like this, when I grew up
“Predictions are difficult, especially when they’re about the future.”
– Niels Bohr, Danish physicist
What Are Forecasts?
To explain this, let me use something we’re all familiar with: weather forecasts. These are projections, and in many ways, they resemble the forecasts futurists outline. However, there are key differences. Weather forecasts prepare us for possible scenarios for the next day—be it clear skies, rain showers, or thunderstorms. They’re intended to help us plan our day or, at best, the whole week.
Similarly, futurists’ forecasts aim to paint a picture of a potential future—but not for tomorrow. We’re talking about 10 or more years ahead. These forecasts can guide planning or adjustments to our current goals and strategies. They can also highlight opportunities and risks for entrepreneurs like you and me.
The biggest difference lies in the promise of accuracy. While weather forecasts strive to hit the mark with their predictions, future forecasts accept a degree of uncertainty since they explore a broader range of possible outcomes.
In short, a forecast is a credible depiction of what might happen in the future. It focuses on understanding underlying forces (the tide) rather than transient events (the waves). It’s not a “prediction.” A prediction is a claim that something will happen, and it’s almost always wrong. When someone tries to predict the future, it’s more entertainment than research. Fortune tellers predict the future; futurists do not. The link between thinking about the future and predicting the future is deeply ingrained in our mindset, so be aware that it might take some unlearning to separate forecasting from prediction.
Back to the Future (Looking Back to Look Ahead)
Using historical data and patterns can be a smart way to think about what’s coming. While history doesn’t repeat itself exactly, it can provide insight into how fundamental changes—such as advancements in information and communication technologies—have reshaped societies, revealing patterns that might repeat or influence future developments.
The tourism industry has evolved significantly over time, shaped by various key events that have changed how and why people travel. Here’s a quick overview of some of the most important milestones in this development:
1841: Thomas Cook launches the first package tour, simplifying travel.
1903: The Wright brothers usher in the aviation era, making distant destinations accessible.
1950s: The Jet Age begins with planes like the Boeing 707, opening the door to mass tourism.
1970s: Charter flights and affordable package tours make travel cheaper for more people.
1980s: Digital reservation systems streamline the booking process.
1990s: The internet simplifies travel planning and booking.
2000s: Low-cost airlines make air travel more accessible.
2008: The sharing economy, led by Airbnb, diversifies accommodation options.
2020: The COVID-19 pandemic shifts focus to health, safety, and sustainable travel.
I could add more, but each of these events has significantly impacted the development of tourism, shaping the industry into its current form, which continues to evolve in response to technological, economic, and social changes.
Does This Reveal a Pattern?
Look at what happened before and after these milestones. Can this be compared to today’s turbocharged technological development? Who is affected? How? What happened to society? What’s happening to intermediaries?
I’m confident you could come up with a range of insightful questions and start uncovering patterns.
Moore's Law postulates that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years, leading to an increase in computing power and efficiency. Perhaps we are now beyond this law and experiencing exponential growth.
I want to create a forecast. How do I get started?
There’s no single way to create forecasts and scenarios, but let’s keep it simple. Here are four easy steps you can start using today:
Collect and analyze signals of change
Use signals to identify drivers of change
Combine signals and drivers into forecasts
Develop scenarios from the forecasts
1. Collect and Analyze Signals of Change
For futurists, signals are like words for writers or paint for painters. They are the basic building blocks futurists use to create. I like to think of signals as tools that help us see in the dark. A signal of change is essentially anything happening today that could hint at what the future might hold.
It’s a good idea to start by identifying signals. Signals are usually small but significant indicators of changes that could have a major impact on the future. A signal might be a new invention, a product, a business model, or a behavior. It could be the first successful test of a new technology or the initial major failure of an old one. Signals can also be large-scale events; for example, the Chernobyl disaster significantly impacted the construction of nuclear power plants worldwide. A signal could even be a new law, such as the many EU regulations on transparency and sustainability now being introduced, which may affect us more than we realize.
In the context of Norwegian tourism, signals could range from technological innovations like electric planes that reduce the carbon footprint of travel to and within Norway, to shifts in consumer behavior, such as growing interest in sustainable and responsible tourism. If you encounter something that feels strange or new—something you haven’t seen before—it could be a signal of change, though not always. For instance, some tourism businesses have noticed an increase in inquiries from India. What does this mean? Could it be connected to the fact that the world’s most populous country also has the fastest-growing economy?
Not everyone notices such signals, and most people don’t pay attention to them. To spot these signals, you need to be on the lookout. It helps to explore a wide range of sources regularly. Everything from scientific reports and tourism studies to social media and popular culture can provide clues about where we’re heading.
Capturing signals requires an openness to seemingly insignificant or puzzling phenomena, as these might be the precursors to major trends. Is something new happening? To interpret a signal, it’s useful to ask yourself a few questions:
What change does this represent? From what to what?
What is driving this change? What force is behind it?
How will the world look in 10 years if this signal strengthens?
Is this a future we want? Are we excited or nervous, and why?
By assessing signals, we prepare ourselves for the future and avoid being caught off guard by new developments. These four questions can help you understand the potential significance of signals and the kind of future you want to create—or avoid.
If you want to keep track of the signals you find, it’s a good idea to create a system. I’ve created my own simple system. For years, I’ve kept a Google Doc (essentially a spreadsheet) where I log what I discover. I also use Trello for this purpose. You’ll find your own method. It’s also important to follow up on signals over time, as they may evolve or change—or disappear entirely.
Look for patterns. What’s on the rise? What’s on the decline? In the image below, the first curve is descending. This represents the way things have traditionally been done—a system governed by rules, regulations, and established usage patterns we’re familiar with. But this approach is gradually fading, and we don’t know the exact angle of decline. Meanwhile, a new way of doing things—a rising curve—is emerging. We’re still in the early stages, and we only see signals of this new way now, but this curve tells us something about a new trend gaining traction. A pattern, in other words.
2. Use Signals to Identify Drivers of Change
The first questions a professional futurist asks about a signal might be:
What type of change does this signal represent?
What direction is it taking us?
From what now to what next?
You don’t need to be a researcher or professional to ask these questions and get a sense of the direction things are heading. But once you’ve identified the direction, you can dig deeper: What underlying force is creating this change? What trend or larger phenomenon is driving us in this direction?
The difference between a driver and a signal is that a signal is a specific example, while a driver is the larger force behind it—like waves and tides.
Behind every signal lies at least one driver. Drivers of change are the underlying forces shaping the future. These may be economic, technological, environmental, political, or socio-cultural. Examining multiple related signals can help you uncover these drivers.
For tourism, examples of such drivers might include:
Economic Drivers: Currency exchange rates, which affect Norway’s appeal as a destination for international visitors.
Technological Drivers: Developments like virtual reality (VR) experiences, which could complement or even replace physical travel.
Environmental Drivers: Climate change, which impacts Norway’s natural attractions and the viability of activities like skiing or glacier tourism.
Political and Regulatory Drivers: New laws and regulations around sustainable tourism.
Socio-Cultural Drivers: Shifts in traveler preferences and values, particularly around sustainability and authentic experiences.
While some drivers are specific to tourism, such as transportation technology advancements or community protests, most are broader forces that cut across industries. To manage these drivers effectively, it’s essential not only to identify and understand them but also to evaluate their potential impact on tourism.
Below are a few broader drivers or megatrends that are worth monitoring. While they may not be specific to tourism, they are likely to influence the industry in some way.
Global Drivers Shaping the Future
Demographic Shifts: The world population will reach 8.5 billion by 2030, up from 7.3 billion in 2015. The fastest-growing demographic will be older adults, as life expectancy rises and fertility rates decline. By 2030, 1 billion people will be over the age of 65. Other megatrends, like climate change, could alter these outcomes.
Urbanization: Two-thirds of us will live in cities by 2030, leading to more megacities as well as small and mid-sized metropolitan areas. This shift could impact everything from food logistics to the development of urban agriculture.
Transparency: Our world is becoming increasingly open—and less private. The trend toward tracking everything shows no signs of slowing. While this could lead to a more just and open society, many fear it may come at the cost of personal privacy.
Climate Crisis: Climate change will continue to accelerate, marked by frequent extreme weather events. While the exact trajectory is uncertain, its impacts will be profound and far-reaching.
Resource Pressure: The world is not an endless supply of resources. We’ll be forced to prioritize and embrace circular models, such as sourcing less from extraction, using recycled materials, and designing products to last longer.
Technological Advancements: Developments that used to take a century now happen in just a few years. Are we ready for it? From the Internet of Things to decentralized systems, technology is reshaping how we live and work. Artificial intelligence may reach human-level intelligence by 2030, solving major challenges while creating new ones.
Focus on Cleaner Energy: By 2030, significant changes in energy production and consumption will occur, driven by increasingly affordable renewable energy. More than half of all new global energy capacity now comes from renewable sources.
Global Politics: Will governments and institutions work together to address climate change, resource scarcity, and inequality, or will regions and groups retreat into isolationism? Predicting politics is almost impossible, but the role of businesses in driving sustainability will likely grow.
Populism: We’re seeing a resurgence of nationalism, protectionism, and radicalism. In recent years, populists have gained power in countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Hungary. Meanwhile, citizens in places like Turkey and Sudan are pushing for autocratic systems. According to Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, only 8% of the world’s population lives in a liberal democracy—levels not seen since 1986.
Drivers with Specific Relevance to Tourism
The Cashless Society: The decline of cash and the rise of digital currencies and mobile payments are transforming how business is conducted, including in tourism.
The Use of Emojis: Communication today is increasingly visual and global, and emojis are reshaping how we interact. This seemingly trivial shift could have significant implications for how tourism brands engage with travelers.
Moving From X to Y
All drivers share one thing in common: They represent a shift from one reality (X) to another (Y). For example, climate change moves us from a world with predictable weather and adequate infrastructure to one with unpredictable weather and insufficient resources to adapt.
Drivers reveal trends in motion and the dynamics shaping our journey into the future. While drivers can be halted or redirected, doing so requires intervention and effort.
What do you think? Are we moving from a world where physical currency dominates to one where digital currency is the norm? From a world of words to one of images?
3. Combine Signals and Drivers into Forecasts
A future forecast is a prediction based on data and evidence available today, outlining what might happen in the future. Futurists often create multiple competing forecasts to describe different versions of the future. The purpose of these forecasts isn’t to provide an accurate picture of what will happen but to spark thought, giving us ample time to consider which future we want and enabling us to take action today to make that desired future more likely.
Multiple forecasts also prepare us for outcomes we hope won’t occur. If they do, we’ll be more prepared than if we had ignored the possibility entirely.
Forecasts aren’t valuable because they inevitably come true; they are valuable because they challenge us to think differently. They inspire new insights and actions. You don’t need to agree with a forecast to benefit from it. Provocation can be productive, as it generates reactions and discussions.
Here are some checkpoints for creating a good future forecast:
It’s possible. Do you have evidence? List and link to the evidence supporting your argument.
It’s likely, but not inevitable. What is the path to this future? Who will work to make it happen? Is there anything we can do to stop or alter it?
It’s provocative. Does it make people pause and think? Does it spark conversations?
4. Developing Scenarios from Forecasts
A scenario is a concrete story about a future forecast. It describes what we might see, feel, and experience if we suddenly woke up in that future. A scenario portrays the future as if it’s already real. These are systematic and imaginative narratives that consider various drivers and signals, helping us visualize the future more vividly. Scenarios can take many forms—short stories, news articles, comics, films, or even documentaries from the future. Any format suitable for storytelling can be used to share a scenario.
Scenarios are vital because they allow us to assess whether we want that future and begin thinking about what actions we would take if it came to pass.
When creating or encountering a new future scenario, use it to search for surprising opportunities. Ask questions like:
Who benefits from this future? What do they gain?
Who or what is disadvantaged in this future?
What would you worry about as an individual in this world?
What would concern you as a company?
Or consider a relevant organization—a school, hospital, or city council—what would their worries be?
What could go wrong, and for whom?
What emotions might people feel more strongly in this future?
What actions might people start taking to adapt or cope?
Who could exploit this future? What would they manipulate, cheat, or take advantage of?
What actions could people take to try to improve this world?
“To achieve the impossible, one must first attempt the absurd.”
– Miguel de Cervantes (likely from Don Quixote)
Many believe that any meaningful statement about the future should initially seem absurd. Don’t shy away from ideas that are provocative, surprising, or even far-fetched. Ideas that drive real change and innovation often lie far outside conventional thinking. It’s okay to present forecasts and scenarios that may seem absurd to some. Feelings of discomfort or disbelief often indicate that you’re pushing people out of their comfort zones.
It’s the unexpected, the seemingly impossible, that surprises and shocks us. Those who are least open to the unimaginable are often the most stunned when it happens.
Don’t fear having strong opinions. Bold visions of the future can inspire significant change and prepare us for major upheavals.
At the same time, it’s wise not to cling too tightly to your ideas. Stay open to hearing other perspectives. Look for evidence suggesting your predictions might be wrong. Don’t assume that the future you envision will be desirable to everyone. In my experience, most people prefer to keep the course steady. Change often triggers fear.
Herman Kahn, a pioneer in scenario planning, deliberately included disclaimers in his reports. He wrote:
“Some of these ideas are intentionally misleading to provoke thought.”
This forced readers to critically evaluate his ideas, using them to explore new possibilities and teaching them to use future scenarios as tools for creative thinking.
Experimentation is key to finding what works for you. Absorb as much research as possible, read many forecasts, and listen to a variety of scenarios. This helps develop an intuitive sense of what a forecast should sound like or how a scenario should feel.
Scenarios are often presented as if they’ve already happened, making them more impactful the closer they resemble reality.
Dystopia and Utopia: Contrasting Visions of the Future
Dystopia and utopia are well-known concepts used to describe imagined future societies or worlds, representing opposite ideals.
Utopia refers to an ideal or perfect societal structure where everything promotes well-being, harmony, and justice for all. The term originates from Thomas More’s 1516 book Utopia, a play on the Greek words for “no place” (ou-topos) and “good place” (eu-topos). While utopias are often used in literature and philosophy to illustrate perfect societies, they are criticized as unrealistic or unattainable in practice.
Dystopia, on the other hand, describes an undesirable or feared society characterized by significant social issues, oppression, and widespread dissatisfaction. Dystopias often explore darker themes like authoritarianism, environmental collapse, and the loss of individual freedoms. Examples of dystopian fiction include George Orwell’s 1984, Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, and Suzanne Collins’ The Hunger Games series.
While utopias offer ideals to strive for, dystopias serve as warnings of what might happen if certain negative trends in society are left unaddressed. Both concepts examine human nature, societal structures, and our collective potential for both good and harm.
Example Scenario: AR Bubble Transport
One forward-thinking scenario created by TravelTech for Scotland is called AR Bubble Transport. This concept envisions transparent, bubble-shaped vehicles providing passengers with a unique and interactive view of Stirling’s historic sites. Using augmented reality (AR), key figures like William Wallace and pivotal moments from his battles are “planted” directly into the real surroundings visible to passengers. This creates an engaging and educational experience that entertains and informs.
Learn more about this scenario here.
AR Bubble Transport - Illustrated by Nicola Henry
What Future Do We Want? What Is Our Preferred Future?
I believe more people desire a utopian future than a dystopian one. The reality will likely land somewhere in between—but this is something we can influence. The future isn’t something that merely happens to us; it’s something we create. We’re building a future radically different from our present and our past.
For instance, we can work toward peace rather than conflict. While there are too many variables in our lives to predict the future with certainty, we can start imagining different possibilities, from the positive to the negative. This allows us to plan for the future we want, starting today. We can ask ourselves questions about new technologies, changing precipitation patterns, and, critically, how emerging technologies and climate changes will shape our lives in the years to come.
Conflicts arise when different groups have competing visions for the future. By focusing on what is possible rather than what we want or don’t want, we can begin to understand the realm of possibility. This shift in perspective enables us to uncover points of collaboration and to explore potential futures—even if we don’t agree on all of them.
A preferred future isn’t just about realistic forecasts. It’s about defining clear goals and visions for a better world, which can inspire action and commitment to turn that desired future into reality.
We live in an era where technological and social changes overwhelm most of us, while a small technosocial elite—particularly in Silicon Valley—is actively shaping their own desired future. They wield significant influence over your future and mine. To counteract this, we need to make futures thinking accessible to more people so that you and I can actively participate in shaping the future. Agreed?
Do you remember the butterfly effect? In chaos theory, this refers to how small changes in a system can lead to significant differences later on. The metaphor suggests that the flap of a butterfly’s wings can eventually create massive waves. This means even the smallest actions we take today can have a profound impact on the future. Time and again, humanity has demonstrated its ability to create almost anything it sets its mind to. Perhaps we need to stop asking what we can create and instead focus on what we should create.
Backcasting is a planning process that begins with defining a desired future situation or state—such as a product, service, or societal goal—and then works backward to identify the steps, strategies, and resources needed to achieve it.
To shape your preferred future, it’s wise to think big and positively about something that excites and inspires you and others. Present your vision with clear details so others can easily imagine it. Set a deadline to create a tangible goal to strive for, and make sure your vision for the future feels distinct from today’s reality. Most importantly, describe the future so clearly that others can definitively say whether it has been achieved or not.
Identify the obstacles standing in your way and explore ways to overcome them. Think about new systems or processes that could help you reach your goals. Action and engagement are key to turning your preferred future into reality. View the future as a field of possibilities, where every choice opens new pathways. Collaborate creatively with others to find solutions. This approach will help you develop an actionable roadmap to achieve your aspirations.
The End is Near (a common scenario in religious circles)
As I reach the end of this piece, I realize there’s so much more I should have discussed. Simulation, for instance. Simulation allows us to imagine and predict the outcomes of our actions, improving problem-solving in the process. It’s crucial because our brains often struggle to think effectively about the future. Through mental simulations, we can test various actions in our minds before implementing them. We can practice things we’ve never done before.
Simulations are common in the training of ship captains and pilots, for example. It’s surprising that they aren’t more widespread in the travel industry, although digital twins and similar technologies are on the rise. I studied media, film, and theater at university, and I now see how everything connects. Life is cyclical, and I’m excited to apply the dramaturgy and directing skills I learned back then to work more extensively with scenarios and simulations in the future.
There are also several techniques we can use, such as the Future Wheel and Two Sides of Every Future, which explore future scenarios. Headlines from the Future help create visions of desired futures, while Pictures of the Future inspire change through cultural representations. The +1 Technique and Future Artifacts foster reflection and engagement in discussions about future possibilities and challenges. An Action Roadmap helps break down your desired future into manageable steps by organizing actions based on how soon they can be implemented and their level of difficulty. This makes large future goals more achievable.
We’ll save that for another time.
