Jevons’ Paradox: Why More Efficiency Won’t Save Us
The logic seems airtight: make something more efficient, and we’ll use less of it. Less energy per mile, less fuel per flight, less data per query. But history says otherwise.
Jevons’ Paradox tells us that when a resource becomes more efficient to use, total consumption often skyrockets instead of shrinking. Economist William Stanley Jevons first identified the paradox in the 19th century when he noticed that making coal engines more efficient actually drove up coal demand. The 19th-century coal engines burned fuel more efficiently, and coal use exploded. Cars became fuel-efficient, so we drove more. AI models now run on fewer watts per query, yet demand for AI is surging.
And here’s the kicker: the same applies to energy in travel. Make aviation biofuel 10% more efficient, and what happens? Flights become cheaper, demand rises, and more people travel. Hotels get better at optimizing electricity use, and instead of reducing consumption, they add more tech-powered luxury. AI promises streamlined logistics and sustainable travel planning, but if it makes travel easier and more accessible, do we really travel less?
If we reduce emissions by 25% while the growth is 25%, the emissions are still increasing. Just at a marginally slower rate.
The AI Dilemma
AI is already reshaping how we move through the world. Personalized recommendations make it easier to find the perfect trip. AI-powered logistics make transportation more seamless. Smart hotel automation reduces energy waste. All of this sounds great, except for one inconvenient truth: when something becomes easier and cheaper, we tend to do it more.
Think about how the internet changed how we consume information. It was supposed to democratize knowledge, and it did, but it also led to an explosion of content, endless scrolling, and more time spent online than ever before. AI in travel works the same way. The promise is efficiency, but the result is often overuse.
And here’s where it gets tricky. Travel has a carbon cost. Planes, trains, and hotels all consume energy, even when optimized. AI might make those processes slightly more sustainable per unit of travel, but if it fuels even more trips, the net impact may still be worse.
Are We Asking the Wrong Question?
We tend to focus on efficiency as the holy grail of sustainability. If we can just make flights 20% more fuel-efficient, if hotels can cut their energy use by 15%, if AI can optimize logistics to reduce waste, surely that’s progress?
Yes, but only if we change how we use that efficiency.
History suggests that without conscious intervention, efficiency leads to more consumption, not less. It makes sense, when something becomes cheaper, more people can afford it. When it becomes easier, more people do it. And when it feels less harmful, we give ourselves permission to indulge more.
So maybe the real question isn’t how we can make travel more efficient. Maybe the real question is: how do we make efficiency actually lead to less consumption, rather than more?
Can we break the Cycle?
The only way to escape Jevons’ Paradox is to rethink how we use technological progress. Instead of letting efficiency fuel unchecked growth, we need to put guardrails in place.
Redefine success: Instead of celebrating "record-breaking tourism numbers," we should celebrate lower-impact, higher-value experiences.
Incentivize less, not more: AI-powered travel could prioritize fewer, longer, and deeper trips rather than constant short-haul escapes.
Measure what matters: Instead of just tracking efficiency improvements, we should track total energy consumption. If it’s still rising, we haven’t solved anything.
The Future of Travel in an AI-Driven World
Efficiency is a tool, not a solution. AI can optimize, streamline, and reduce waste, but if it makes travel so seamless that we double or triple our trips, we’re just repeating history.
If William Stanley Jevons were alive today, he’d likely tell us that making travel “sustainable” through better technology isn’t enough. We need to rethink what sustainable even means. Because if AI makes travel effortless, the real question isn’t whether we cantravel more, it’s whether we should.
